Wild and Crazy VP Prediction: It's Arnold!

I have only a day or so until John McCain announces his pick for vice president. I was thinking, whom could he choose who would really electrify the country, grab the headlines, and relieve people's worry that he might die in office and leave some nobody as president? The first thought that flashed through my mind: Arnold Schwarzenegger. Now, since Arnold can't be president (because he's not native-born), I would guess he can't be vice president either. But if you really wanted to have fun with it, you could choose him anyway and leave everyone else to fight about it. There would be some complaints that McCain doesn't know his ass from his elbow, else he would never make such a goofy mistake; but he could conceivably counter those with an up-front statement of the issue and an indication that he does have an alternative pick in mind, if the law does not permit it. Realistically, it won't be Arnold, and it also won't be Jesse Ventura, though I suspect there's a part of McCain that would find that one pretty intriguing too. But I do think it will be someone who is young, strong, confident, competent -- a real counterpoint to Obama, and equally well (and admittedly) too young to be president just yet.

Here's the Deal: Barack, Hillary, and Bill

My speculation for the week: 1. Barack and Hillary are campaigning together. Hillary would not be doing this unless she already had a deal she couldn't refuse. When they sat themselves in easy chairs in Dianne Feinstein's living room, they got right to the point. Hillary would not be this happy with anything less than the vice presidential slot. Barack's promise is that, at the appropriate time, selected for maximum political advantage, he will announce her as his VP candidate. 2. Hillary is motivated to do everything in her power for her and Barack to win. That means bringing every last one of her supporters on board for Barack, if possible. That also means muzzling Bill. He has been very unhelpful for her in this campaign, especially when compared to what he could have done if he had been more focused. The deal is, Hillary is the VP candidate; she takes the spotlight off Michelle Obama; the Clintons' 1990s baggage is history; and Bill Clinton is not a significant part of the package. 3. Bill is motivated to mind his tongue and do what Barack and Hillary need. His motivation is that he will be Barack's first nominee to a Supreme Court position, or possibly some ambassadorship (to e.g., the United Nations). He probably got his pick, and he probably does want to be back in the game in some regard. He lies low now; he gets rewarded later.

It Might Be Hillary After All

I heard an interesting comment the other day. The comment was that, if we were starting the primary season all over again, Barack probably would not survive it. The reason, probably due to the Rev. Wright matter as much as anything, was that Barack was not going to be able to deliver states like Ohio and Pennsylvania for the Democrats.

I’m not too eager to see the Clintons back in the White House. Hillary will doubtless be a very competent president. It’s just that, every now and then, something comes back to remind me of that era. Today, it was Rwanda. Yesterday, in a conversation, it was the furniture-moving fiasco when they were exiting the White House. There was just too much of that sort of thing.

But whatever. It seems there is a good chance that, somehow, Michigan and Florida are going to weigh in on this thing; and given Hillary’s seemingly growing momentum, I expect they will favor her.

What I think the Democratic party may be angling for is a graceful exit from Obama, at least for now. Give him eight years to become a seasoned veep, and everything will look different. But at the present, I think the party leadership may feel that an Obama vs. McCain race will be too close for comfort. Not so much because of the polls, but because of the perceived potential for liabilities and unknowns.

It also seems that Hillary is seen as more of a centrist than Obama, in the sense that some who are denied a chance to vote for her may defect to McCain, while a similar defection seems unlikely for most would-be Obama voters. Given what sounds like a growing sentiment at the moment, my odds on Hillary becoming the nominee somehow are up from 10% to more like 40%.

We'll know in a few days. If that meeting of delegates in late May doesn't produce an irrefutable conclusion for Obama, then my bet goes over the 50% mark. At that point, in other words, I'm thinking the tide will have turned.

Al Gore as Vice President

I don't know if Al will want the job. If he doesn't take it, he'll go the way of Colin Powell: someone who was in line for the White House, but who failed to stay in the limelight and therefore no longer has the chance. Al's environmental crusade is important and global, but it's everyone's concern now. Even as its frontman, I don't believe he will have enough visibility four years from now, or eight, to be in a position to run for president. Being vice-president again would be a been-there, done-that role for Al. But it would also put him back, a heartbeat away from the presidency, where he would have some advantages for environmental purposes that he will not have in the political wilderness, especially if he bargained with Obama for an express environmental portfolio. And in the keep-it-clean campaigns that Obama and McCain talk about, running as Veep might not sully Al overmuch. He could be bigger than the job without necessarily letting it diminish him. Al as vice president would bring some advantages for the Democrats. There would be, for some, the inevitability and historical factors: Al won it already, for chrissake, let him have it -- and hey, we can still have a whiff of the Clinton era without the Clintons. The white male voters who have not been too keen on Obama might find Al's portly presence reassuring. Finally, Al could play the role of the unifier, between the Clinton and Obama camps.