Early Prediction: It's Obama

Bill Clinton's motto in 1992 was, "It's the economy, stupid." And it still is. Especially in these times of increasingly dire talk from Wall Street et al. America is in the throes of adjustment to a developing-nation standard of living -- because the developing nations are the places against which we will be competing in the coming decade. Americans are not necessarily happy about this adjustment. They will be experiencing a lot of pain, discomfort, and unfamiliar territory. John McCain, as the candidate of the incumbent party, is woefully disadvantaged in this regard. As winter approaches and the economy continues to decline, his current parity with Obama will evaporate. That's my early bet.