Showing posts with label 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008. Show all posts

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Cornell's EDI 2008 Disability Status Report Webinar: A Review

Today, I watched a webinar presented by the Employment and Disability Institute (EDI) within the ILR School (formerly the School of Industrial and Labor Relations) at Cornell University.  Elsewhere, I have outlined some of the materials available on EDI's website generally.  Among those materials, it may be worth noting that EDI occasionally offers other webinars.  EDI maintains a Current News Bulletin webpage (also available in PDF and via RSS feed) that provides notifications of those webinars as well as notices of other disability-related developments; that webpage (or PDF or RSS) appears to be the best way of keeping up with such events. (The news bulletin appears to be produced by the DBTAC for the northeastern region (as distinct from the New England region), which in turn appears to be hosted by ILR.)

Today's webinar was described as "DisabilityStatistics.org Presents: The 2008 Disability Status Report."  The slides used in this webinar are presently available for PDF download.  As those slides indicate, the webinar amounted to a simple presentation of information that already seems to appear in EDI's Disability Status Reports.  It was, in other words, a video of a series of slides with voice-overs.


No doubt this presentation was exactly what some viewers needed:  it provided a summary of the printed data, in a format that some may find more accessible or interesting.  I also appreciate that, just as Cornell provides an essentially neutral home for other governmental materials, such as the United States Code, so also EDI may see its role in this regard as one of simply serving as a mouthpiece for the government.  But I was disappointed.  I hoped to hear the inside dope.  I didn’t want to just hear, without elaboration, that the 2008 ACS asked significantly different questions than previous years’ surveys, and that the resulting data are therefore not directly comparable to previous years’ results.  I already knew that; my previous post says so.  I wanted to hear why.

I wanted to hear, for example, that my own previous post was correct in its hunch that the data collection process was deliberately corrupted by the Bush Administration, in ways that no self-respecting statistician of disabilities can tolerate.  Or, alternately, I wanted to hear that, no, there were in fact very good reasons, beyond those I already surmised, for eviscerating year-to-year comparability.  I did not want to hear someone simply parrot the fact that, because of said evisceration, the loss of millions of Americans from the lists of the disabled did not mean that those people had actually ceased to have disabilities.  I wanted to hear that statisticians are taking countermeasures, in a bid to develop an approach that will give us an actual, halfway meaningful statistic on the prevalence of disabilities, and on other disability-related matters that the ACS should be covering.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Cornell ILR EDI 2008 Disability Status Reports

The Employment and Disability Institute (EDI) within the ILR School at Cornell University has now rolled out its Disability Status Reports on the American Community Survey (ACS) data for 2008.  These reports are available in PDF format for each state and also for the U.S. a whole.  Based on a review of a few such reports, it appears that each is a 65-page document covering the same list of topics, as presented in each report's list of contents.  (Note that the contents list items are clickable; for example, clicking on the line for "Prevalence:  All Ages" takes you immediately to page 10 of the report.)  Those topics are presented under two main headings, as follows:


Demographics
Prevalence: All Ages
Prevalence: Ages 4 and under
Prevalence: Ages 5 to 15
Prevalence: Ages 16 to 20
Prevalence: Ages 21 to 64 (Working-Age)
Prevalence: Ages 65 to 74
Prevalence: Ages 75 and Older
Prevalence: Gender and Age
Prevalence: Hispanic / Latino Origin and Age
Prevalence: Race

Outcomes
Employment
Not Working but Actively Looking for Work
Full-Time / Full-Year Employment
Annual Earnings (Full-Time / Full-Year workers)
Annual Household Income
Poverty
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Education: High School Diploma / Equivalent
Education: Some College / Associate's Degree
Education: Bachelor's Degree or More
Veterans Service-Connected Disability
Health Insurance Coverage
Type of Health Insurance Coverage


For example, the Employment section appears on pp. 32-33, apparently using virtually identical text and identically formatted graphs in each report, so that the first bulleted point on page 32 reads as follows in, say, the Michigan report.  I offer editorial comments on these reports in a contemporaneous post.

In 2008, the employment rate of working-age people with disabilities in MI was 33.6 percent.
whereas the Indiana report differs only by ending that first bulleted point with the words “in IN was 39.8 percent.”  In short, the reports provide a state-by-state, plain-English summary of key points that one will hopefully soon be able to obtain directly from the Census Bureau’s American FactFinder webpage for disability statistics.  (Note that EDI’s Disability Statistics webpage also links to disability data from the decennial Census and the Current Population Survey (CPS).

Monday, January 4, 2010

American Community Survey: 2008 Update: Defining Disability

In previous posts, I have looked into the prevalence of disabilities in the United States, as measured especially by the American Community Survey (ACS), especially in 2003. This post takes a first step toward updating the ACS measurement of disabilities, in light of changes made between 2003 and 2008.  The focus here is on the definition of disability under the 2008 ACS.

As of 2008, the ACS 2008 Subject Definitions (p. 38) defined disability as “the restriction in participation that results from a lack of fit between the individual’s functional limitations and the characteristics of the physical and social environment.” The Census Bureau asserts that “disability is not seen as intrinsic to the individual”; nonetheless, the Bureau also identifies “four basic areas of functioning” in which respondents might have “serious difficulty.” In that sense, the language still seems to reflect an impression that disabilities are the individual’s problem, rather than a mutual “lack of fit.” For instance, one might expect a different outcome if respondents were presented with a broader inquiry into functional limitations perceived either by themselves or by others in their lives (e.g., employers, neighbors, family members).

In what the Subject Definitions (p. 38) describe as “a conceptual and empirical break from earlier years,” the 2008 ACS still had six questions about disabilities, but now sought to identify “serious difficulty in four basic areas of functioning: vision, hearing, ambulation, and cognition,” and also included “two questions to identify people with difficulties that might impact their ability to live independently.”

These changes followed from a 2006 American Community Survey Content Test, whose results in the area of disability were written up by Brault and Stern (2007) in an Evaluation Report Covering Disability. The 2006 Content Test was driven by a concern with improved reliability in survey results (Brault & Stern, p. 9), not by a concern with capturing the full numbers of people with disabilities. To the contrary, Brault & Stern admit that some of the changes in the ACS disability questions tend to reduce reported prevalence (p. 8) and that the 2006 Content Test used data collection modes that contained “inherent barriers to collecting disability data” (p. 15). The latter point is important because the regular ACS appears to use essentially the same methods.

In a separate report attached as Appendix B to the Brault and Stern (2007) report (above) (i.e., beginning at page 33 of that PDF), Miller and DeMaio (2006) indicated that, for purposes of consistency with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), an unspecified ACS subcommittee determined that disability would be defined as “a mental or physical impairment that substantially limits at least one major life activity” (p. B-2).  That subcommittee appears to have approached that question by exploring “domains of limitation” or “limitation domains” (pp. B-2, B-3), instead of taking the seemingly obvious step of deciding what counts as a major life activity.

To cite some rather choice examples, Miller and DeMaio did not indicate that the subcommittee considered sleep, sex, or socializing to be major life activities.  All three of those examples seem to involve the Census Bureau’s alleged orientation toward the two-sided question of fit between person and society.  It is society that supplies the people, the stresses, and other key components and determinants of sleep, sex, and socializing.  One would expect, in other words, that these three would be prime candidates for inclusion in the list of major life activities, or as essential contributors thereto.  For instance, there is evidence that sleep deprivation significantly interferes with work and other major daily activities of tens of millions of Americans (Baxter & Kroll-Smith, 2005, p. 39), that it results in substantial numbers of injuries and deaths (e.g., Lyznicki, Doege, Davis, & Williams, 1998), and that one-third of Americans take naps on a typical day (Taylor, 2009).  Although it is presumably not necessary to do so here, one certainly could develop a more extensive argument for sleep, and could make similar arguments for the inclusion of sex, socializing, and other activities that the subcommittee somehow considered not to be "major" for purposes of detecting the existence of a disability.

The subcommittee's decisions in this regard might have been more defensible if the ADA had been construed as taking an interest in major productive activities.  Viewed that way, the subcommittee could reasonably conclude (especially in a traditional industrial economy) that it is all right if workers are tired, as long as they keep working.  Likewise, if industrial-type productivity were the stated focus, attention to sex and socializing would probably seem humorously superfluous.  The full list of impairments that mattered to the subcommittee -- involving vision, hearing, lower body mobility, cognition, activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), and work (Miller & DeMaio, 2006, p. B-3) would then make sense.  ADLs “generally include self-care type activities such as bathing and dressing,” and IADLs are activities often associated with independent living such as going out alone to shop or visit a doctor’s office” (Brault & Stern, 2007, p. 4), all of which align with an emphasis upon the worker's functionality and his/her ability to remain functional.

Ironically, contrary to the apparent purpose of the ADA, a functional orientation can reinforce stereotyping and exclusionism.  If the majority defines functionality in terms of what the majority can do, then those in the minority will tend to occupy an inferior role.  It will be newsworthy when technology enables them to overcome – say, to run faster than those who began with what was, by definition, a functional advantage (e.g., Christie, 2009).  In reality, there may be many ways (involving e.g., sleep, sex, or socializing) in which many putatively high-functioning people are experiencing profound limitations in major life activities; but that will not be recognized in the ACS until a standard other than industrial-type functionality is used to guide disability determinations.  There would seem to be a number of good, currently relevant candidates for such a standard – ranging from “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” to social capital to adjustment to or satisfaction with life – that could be used alone or in combination for that purpose.

The apparent functional orientation was not the only way in which the 2008 ACS reduced the count of disabilities even below what one might have expected from the subcommittee’s own stated concept. The survey discarded the subcommittee’s broad interest in mental and physical impairments, in favor of very limited kinds of difficulties. The survey’s only questions about mental disabilities were as follows:

18a. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does this person have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions?
19. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, does this person have difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor’s office or shopping?
Bizarrely, the 2008 ACS no longer has even the question about work disability (Brault & Stern, 2007, p. 7). That is, there is no question about the presence of a physical, mental, or emotional condition that would limit the kind or amount of work a person can do. So if someone has no problem concentrating etc. (Question 18a), and does not have difficulty doing errands alone (Question 19), it seems s/he would not have a work disability even if s/he spent the workday standing on his/her desk and screaming.

Apparently the question about work disability was deleted because Miller and DeMaio (2006, p. B-32) claimed there was an “excessive extent of misinterpretation and misreporting in this question.” One objection Miller and DeMaio cited had to do with vagueness in the word “work.” Some people reportedly took it to include work around the house. That raised interesting questions in itself, but in any event one version of the test question specified work “at a job or business” (p. B-31). Despite the alleged breadth and complexity of the work construct, Miller and DeMaio devoted only about 1.5 pages to the question of work before recommending its deletion.  (While I did not think that disabilities should be defined exclusively in work-related terms, it did seem obvious that inability to work would be an important indicator of disability.)  That is, Miller and DeMaio did not seriously wrestle with the matter; yet they also did not claim that the question of work-related disability is unimportant.

Bear in mind that Miller and DeMaio (2006), who balked at what they consider excessive vagueness in the work construct, were the same researchers who pointed out that “Respondents’ answers to survey questions are necessarily based on personal experience and perceptions of that experience” (p. B-3), that “it is unfeasible to develop questions that yield a perfect measure of disability” (p. B-4), and that, in connection with a question that was retained in the survey, respondents were being required “to discern a clear line of yes or no in a reality that, for them, was essentially grey and multi-dimensional” (p. B-7). All of these remarks seem to suggest that Miller and DeMaio were generally comfortable with the hard decisions that arise in the process of quantifying experience – including work experience.

Under such circumstances, one might be forgiven for asking whether political considerations during the Bush Administration had any influence upon the choice of researchers and/or the recommendations they made in such regards. In a report on changes to measurement of disability in the 2008 American Community Survey that was produced after Obama’s election, Brault (2009, p. 5) seems to indicate that the previous administration had not prioritized the ACS generally. He says that, “due to budgetary issues, FEFU [i.e., Failed Edit Follow-Up] operations were scaled back from April through September” of 2008.

In his 2009 report, Brault states that the net effect of the changes in questions on the 2008 ACS, including the deletion of the work disability question, resulted in a marked drop in the estimated number of Americans with a disability, from 41.2 million (2007) to 35.9 million (2008). “Given the differences in the questionnaire,” Brault says, “one should not interpret these changes as real differences in the number or percent of people with disabilities” (p. 16).  Brault emphasizes that ACS disability data from 2008 are not comparable with ACS disability data from prior years.

This is not to say that the 2008 ACS is useless for all disability-related purposes. Brault (2008, p. 8) suggests, for example, that the ACS is more likely to capture instances of hearing difficulty than is the Survey for Income and Program Participation (SIPP), because the SIPP excludes hearing difficulties that are corrected by hearing aids. That particular example is not necessarily good or bad in itself, but it does suggest that the ACS may sometimes provide a useful alternate picture on the prevalence of some kinds of disabilities.

There are some other limitations on ACS data.  First, ACS data of all sorts are not yet available for geographic areas with populations of less than 20,000.  In late 2010, according to the Census Bureau, data will be released “for areas as small as census tracts and block groups, nationwide. For very small towns, 2010 will be the first time that ACS data are published. These data products, referred to as 5-year multiyear estimates, will be based on the data accumulated during the 2005-2009 time period.”  The Bureau also says that information on demographic, socioeconomic and housing characteristics will thereafter be available annually for all areas.  These include annual estimates for all areas of 65,000+ population, three-year averages for all areas of 20,000+ population, and five-year averages for census tracts and block groups.  Note also that, starting in 2006, the ACS did begin to include data for the group quarters population.  These data were not available, however, in 15 states that had a total group quarters population of less than 45,000.

Because of the change in the operational definition of disability in the 2008 ACS, the Census Bureau will not be able to provide three-year estimates for disabilities until the 2008-2010 ACS 3-year estimates are released in 2011.  That is, the change in definitions means that users should not compare disability data from 2008 and afterwards to any year before 2008.

Recap So Far

In this series of posts on the prevalence of disabilities in the U.S., I have been moving toward an estimate of disabilities on the local level.  It seemed logical to begin by choosing a national-level survey that would provide local-level data, and then to understand that survey and, on that basis, to interpret its local data.  Preliminarily, the ACS seemed far superior to other federal surveys, in terms of its penetration to the local level.  It did not define disabilities as comprehensively as some other surveys, but it seemed that it might be possible to adjust its reported prevalence rates upwards by some plausible percentage, so as to reach a defensible ballpark figure for actual local disability prevalence.

Unfortunately, this post's critique of the definition of disabilities, and of its operationalization in the 2008 ACS, suggests that the ACS does not provide accurate data on the prevalence of disabilities.  Hence, before conducting further research into federal disability statistics, it presently seems advisable to pursue some other routes.  Several such routes come to mind.  First, there is surely a great deal of relevant third-party literature on the ACS, as distinct from the literature provided by the Census Bureau itself.  Second, there may be good local-level research on the prevalence of disabilities in various types of cities and counties, sufficient to inform an educated guess on prevalence in other similar local areas.  Third, on a more theoretical level, there is no doubt much to learn about the conceptualization of disability -- on, for example, the validity of viewpoints suggested in this post.  Since the conceptualization seemed likely to influence the interpretation of research, my next step in this investigation moved in the conceptual direction.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Politicizing the Olympics: A Compromise

Some say the Beijing Olympics are a great opportunity to make the whole world aware of Chinese abuses. Others say the Olympics are about sporting competition, and politics should not have anything to do with it. And some seem to believe that it would be possible to depoliticize the Olympics, while others say that will never happen. Possibly a working compromise would be to say that politics should not be allowed to interfere with the actual sporting competition. So, for example, no boycotts by nation A when the Olympics are held in nation B. You send your best and you compete for the gold, period. That would not prevent athletes from having, and expressing, political viewpoints -- as long as the expression did not interfere with the sporting competition itself. Individual athletes could boycott, as long as others were free to take their places. The other half of the compromise, already implicit in the foregoing remarks, would be that everything else is fair game. Political leaders can attend or not attend; Tibetans can block the passage of the Olympic torch; people can protest -- even in the sporting arena, for the world's cameras -- as long as they do not interfere with any athlete's quest for victory before or during an actual athletic contest.

Monday, February 4, 2008

2008 Beijing Olympics: The Chinese Government Is Screwed

It appears increasingly likely that China will not be able to deliver air suitable for athletes, in time for the 2008 Olympics (or, indeed, for years to come). There could not be a better way to advertise China's pollution problem -- to tell the world what a terrible price China is paying for its rapid economic advance -- than to convene the planet's best athletes there, force them to breathe that air, and give them and the sports commentators something to talk about, for years to come. It also appears increasingly likely that China will present, to the world, the picture of a political mess. The Chinese government needed to be responsive to its people's dreams and concerns before 1989. If it had done so, there might not have been a protest or consequent massacre in Tiananmen Square that year. Failing that, there was an opportunity to become more responsive thereafter. That, too, has substantially failed to happen. At present, the government is ramping up its suppression of dissent. But the dissenters are not quitting. With the eyes of the world on that nation, the ugly truth will be highly visible. In short, within the Olympic context, the Chinese government is doing its level best to persuade the world that the government is illegitimate and that the Chinese route to prosperity is not the right one. This is not Abu Dhabi, with its shimmering wealth. This is a land of a billion people who cannot get clean air or drinking water. And the whole world is going to see that. Having the Olympics in Beijing was a proud idea, but it does not seem likely to serve the Chinese government well.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Recession: Acceleration at the Top

On the subject of recession, envision two models of shifting views. In the first model, belief that a recession may occur grows linearly. Last week, 40% of economists (or whoever) believed that we would have a recession. This week, it's 50%. Next week, it will be 60%. That, I think, is an unlikely model. The alternative, I suggest, is a logarithmic or accelerating model. The acceleration occurs because recession means fear and pain. One might expect a similar acceleration in predictions about any undesirable but increasingly probable development. In this acceleration model, people initially resist believing in the negative outcome. The positive was good for them, and they want it to continue. So instead of ratcheting up by 10% per week, as perhaps it should, the opinions of economists (or whoever) initially increase by only 5%. Last week, 40% of economists publicly admitted that we were approaching a recession; this week, 45% of economists did so (even though the facts were such as to support that finding by a full 50%). It is like a rollercoaster. You do not just go directly into a 45-degree drop. First, once everyone is on the train, you roll out of the station. You screw around for a while -- up, down, up, down. Nothing major. Finally, you come to the big drop-off. But it does not happen all at once. There is a gradually steepening curve. You know what comes next. It is really scary, and there is no way on Earth to stop it. But you are not yet prepared to embrace it; and for a few seconds, the rollercoaster does not actually force you to embrace it. You are going down -- soon, but not for another fraction of a second. There is still time to hope, and to fear. That's Part I. Next, you do go over the cliff. You are indeed plunging downwards at a 45-degree angle. But it feels like 75 degrees. You're moving like a bat out of hell. You feel like you are going straight down. So now the economists are fully focused. We are into a recession: it will be a bad one, we don't know when it will end, etc. Now, instead of an increase from 50% of economists this week to a tally of 60% next week, the pace picks up. Now everybody is a believer. You go from 50% in one week to 75% in the next week. This is what panics are all about. People sell when they actually might not need to sell. The bottom might come soon. Or it might not; we really have no idea. The point here is simply that opinions change at an accelerating pace, not a linear one.