American Progress Report: Many Still Favor Bush

The prospects are not good, for democracy as we know it. I know how it is supposed to work, and I like that vision. But we are now looking at our third election in a row where people would elect someone like George W. Bush or John McCain. McCain is indubitably smarter and more experienced. But he does appear to agree with Bush on the large majority of issues. Bush has been disastrous and McCain would likely be damaging at best. This is, unfortunately, not the first time this has happened in recent years. People liked Ronald Reagan for his personality and his leadership. It's understandable. But he imperiled the national economy and, with his deregulation, gave us the savings & loan collapse. It cost us about $160 billion, I believe was the final figure. Nonetheless, people looked back fondly to his two terms and to that of the smarter, more experienced, and yet goofier George H. W. Bush, Sr., who followed him. For decades, many Soviets wistfully recalled the days of Joseph Stalin, who murdered tens of millions of their countrymen. For that matter, in Germany, people elected Adolf Hitler. We, ourselves, have elected people in Congress and elsewhere, term after term, despite our bitter complaints about them and the many ways in which they have proceeded to squander our resources and opportunities. It doesn't matter whether you agree with me. I'm not arguing that this or that should happen next. I'm predicting what *will* happen next. If you disagree, maybe your prediction will turn out to be correct, instead of mine. My prediction is that democracy, as we know it, will increasingly go out of fashion. I hope Barack Obama makes me very wrong. But when half the country (give or take) is prepared to elect people like John McCain and Sarah Palin -- or, before them, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, or Reagan and Bush -- there is a serious problem. Over time, this kind of pattern seems likely to lose supporters. Much depends on what happens in other countries -- China, Russia, and so forth -- where autocratic leadership may be perceived as producing superior results. That is how it looks in the short term. If we go through another Obama bump, like the Clinton years, there will apparently nevertheless remain a hard core of angry Americans who will want yet another clueless Republican president. So in 2012 or 2016, we will again face the prospect of another eight to twelve years of leadership in the wrong direction. We don't presently know what will happen to our economy. Extended hard times and resentment over national humiliation brought Hitler to power in Germany. If we should find ourselves in the basement for a number of years, that portion of society that would admire a strong leader like Reagan or Stalin may well clamor for stronger leadership from our president. It certainly is possible that we could continue the Bush legacy of an overreaching presidency. Even if our own form of democracy endures more or less unchanged -- and I would think it would take many years to achieve a constitutional amendment by popular vote -- it does appear likely that American government will not provide a compelling example of democracy for people in other countries. Even if Obama does a fantastic job, that will only serve to enhance the impression that the American government boils down to a president of greater or lesser quality, plus an enormous and frequently inefficient bureaucracy. Again, I hope I am wrong. But I do find it discouraging to imagine that so many people would so frequently elect this sort of president. The idea that people can make good decisions without adequate knowledge just does not make sense; and to the extent that our democracy is based upon that principle, it does not produce superior results. You can't have this kind of government with uninformed voters -- and, for that matter, with uninformed congresspeople, who cannot hope to understand more than a fraction of the bills they are voting on. Perhaps the best we can hope for, given the prevailing pattern, is that power will devolve from government centers to more local governmental and community units, with centralized quality control checkers. Voters stand a better chance of understanding and voting sensibly on smaller and more localized issues. Progress in this direction could reduce the trend toward placing so much power in a central leader. At this moment, it seems like a superior alternative.

Palin, Scandal, and Moral Superiority

I don't get it. Republicans spent eight years dragging the U.S. through the mud, in the name of getting to the bottom of whatever Bill Clinton had done and whoever he had done it with. Parents were furious that they had to answer their little children's questions about what a blow job was, and all the other stuff they were seeing on TV. The president, and the presidency, took virtually the entire rap for that goofy binge of prurient curiosity. Nobody was excusing Clinton's marital infidelity. But the Republican Party spent years on that and on every other mud-dredging scandal they could find, in the Clintons' personal and professional matters, going back years before they came to Washington, or even before Bill became Arkansas governor. Has anyone forgotten the huge flap over whether Bill had smoked marijuana, and his bizarre claim that he had not inhaled? Throughout recent decades, a huge chunk of America has smoked dope. Who in the world cared about that, other than the moral police of the right wing? So now we have suddenly come into a new age in Washington politics. It did not arrive in time to prevent the right from harping on Obama's fist-bump or his choice of church or his alleged connections with student protesters in the 1960s, when he was eight years old. But suddenly, lo and behold, we have what could be a trashy woman on the right, in the form of Sarah Palin and family, and all at once people are thinking that it's really not right to invade the private life of a candidate for public office. And I agree with that, with a caveat. The caveat is, don't lecture other people about proper morality or the superiority of your religious faith. Don't cover up the bare-breasted statue of Justice, John Ashcroft, when meanwhile your party's future vice-presidential nominee is baring hers premaritally. Don't suddenly discover that it is OK and wonderful for a child to have her own child, after all these years of complaining about single black mothers. Yes, definitely, let us do focus on the real issues in American governance. Let us, indeed, go back and reconsider the 1990s, give Bill and Hillary Clinton a clean slate, and properly excoriate those who made such political hay out of their self-destructive failings, so that our nation will learn something at last, and will not repeat the same mistakes a few years hence. Let's all finally recognize, for God's sake, that those moralistic conceits gave us George W. Bush; let us have a national retrospective soul-searching for the silliness that brought him instead of Al Gore into the White House. Let us hear people on the right -- especially those of the religious right who have long flaunted a most un-Christlike pride in their godliness -- finally confess their sin and seek to make amends for the terrible wrongs they have perpetrated throughout this country and abroad, in the name of a morality that they, themselves, do not necessarily observe. Let us take, together, kindly but seriously, that step toward a new and long-overdue age of rational politics. Until that happens, I say it's smoke. It's the same political fraud in a new guise: morality as defense, rather than morality as offense -- still used, that is, in a fighting mode, not humbly and self-critically. Yes, let us look carefully at the issues. Let us take a running start at them, beginning with 1992. When we see that kind of soul-searching among the so-called godly folk, then I will believe that enough has been said about the contrasts between Sarah Palin's alleged faith and her actual circumstances.

Sarah Palin: The Clarence Thomas of 2008

I am a middle-aged white guy. If I were a member of a race, gender, or ethnic group that was underrepresented in presidential politics, I am not too sure I would think well of it if the majority group -- black people, say, or women -- came to me and said, Ray, we are going to give you a consolation prize. We aren't going to nominate a white guy as president, but here's some whack-job white guy to represent you. Take your pick: Richard Nixon? Dan Quayle? Adolf Hitler? This is the sort of thing that could backfire. I could find it offensive that the majority's views were so clueless as to think that these guys would represent who I am and what I want from my government. So we come to Sarah Palin. Her views only begin to emerge from obscurity, and I wouldn't be surprised if half of the complaints I've heard about her already are wrong. Nonetheless, this is no Hillary Clinton. She didn't get where she is by being the best, by fighting her way to the top. She got where she is because she's female. She has the potential to be a great politician. Likewise, the members of Milli Vanilli had the potential to be great singers -- but that's not what their concertgoers were paying for. It is as if these white guys were saying, OK, you women can't actually come out on top, so we'll throw you a bone to make it seem like you're equal. The thing would have flown better if McCain had at least chosen a woman who had earned national-level respect and had shown national-level capability. If he's going to embrace the Bush legacy so wholeheartedly, why not Condoleeza Rice? Female, and black to boot, and with global experience. There are accomplished women who demonstrate superior credentials for the task of handling the presidency in a crisis. I predict some women will be supremely displeased at the choice of Sarah Palin -- as I would be, if I were one of them.

Catching Up: Best of 2004: September & October

Here's another installment in the continuing effort to distill the best postings from my personal mailing list. These are from September 2004. * * * * * Things to Look Forward to: Beijing Olympics 2008 Here are the top comments made by NBC sports commentators so far during the Summer Olympics [2004] that they would like to take back: 1. Weightlifting commentator: "This is Gregoriava from Bulgaria. I saw her snatch this morning during her warm up and it was amazing." 2. Dressage commentator: "This is really a lovely horse and I speak from personal experience since I once mounted her mother." 3. Paul Hamm, Gymnast: "I owe a lot to my parents, especially my mother and father." 4. Boxing Analyst: "Sure there have been injuries, and even some deaths in boxing, but none of them really that serious." 5. Softball announcer: "If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing again." 6. Basketball analyst: "He dribbles a lot and the opposition doesn't like it. In fact you can see it all over their faces." 7. At the rowing medal ceremony: "Ah, isn't that nice, the wife of the IOC president is hugging the cox of the British crew." * * * * * Late-Night Political News from About.com "Pundits are saying that Kerry's message is garbled. You know you're doing badly when you're running against Bush and you're the one who is garbled." --David Letterman "In a shocking new book by Kitty Kelley, acquaintances of President Bush say that when he was in the National Guard that he liked to sneak out back for a joint or go in the bathroom and do cocaine. Isn't that unbelievable? They actually found people who saw Bush in the National Guard." --Jay Leno "That's quite a claim that Bush did coke and marijuana. You know who's going to get hurt by this? John Kerry. This means Bush could now carry California." --Jay Leno "President Clinton had quadruple bypass surgery over the weekend and is recovering nicely. The doctors told him he can resume having sex in about two weeks. And Hillary said, 'If he does, I'll kill him.'" -- David Letterman "In the debate, stern-faced John Kerry looked like he was at a funeral while smiling President Bush just looked giddy. It was like a before-and-after ad for Prozac." --Jay Leno "I thought it was a pretty good debate. Both candidates got to dodge a range of issues." --David Letterman "The candidates were asked if they thought homosexuality was a choice. John Kerry said it isn't. Good thing he doesn't think it's a choice. Otherwise, he'd still be trying to make up his mind." --Jay Leno "The third presidential debate asked the most important question of all – which of these guys do I hate the least?" --Jay Leno "There's a new three strikes and you're out policy. But enough about President Bush in the debates. Let's move on." "Bad news for Ralph Nader. Today the state of Ohio rejected Ralph Nader's attempt to get on the ballot. Experts say this will hurt Nader's chances of losing all 50 states." --Conan O'Brien "Florida Governor Jeb Bush announced that to avoid any election return problems in Florida this year, this time he is going to announce the results before people go to vote." --Jay Leno "The latest polls say Bush and Kerry are in a dead heat. Reuters' three-day tracking poll says it's tied at 45 percent; the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has it 49 percent Kerry and 48 percent Bush. In an election this close, it's gonna come down to who wants it more and which candidate's brother is governor of Florida." -- Jimmy Kimmel "President Bush and Vice President Cheney have officially conceded that Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction. And today the soldiers in Iraq said, uh, can we come home now?" --Jay Leno "There are photographs of President Bush from the first debate and he's got some kinda lump in the back of his coat, and the rumors are flying that he had a special radio receiver and he was getting answers from someone off stage. Wow, it's like he's back at Yale." — David Letterman "President Bush's approval rating has now dropped down to 47 percent. You know that lump on his back? Well, it's moved to his throat." -- Jay Leno "Sparks were flying again today. Al Gore accused President Bush of using religion to support his presidency. And George Bush fired back that 'Al Gore's just mad because God made me president.'" --Jay Leno "They're doing the early voting in Florida and there are already irregularities in the early Florida voting. You know it's sad when the voting goes smoother in Afghanistan than it does in Florida." -- David Letterman "Ralph Nader said he has no intention of leaving the presidential race. It's not so much he wants to stay in the race. It's just that he has nowhere else to go." --Jay Leno "It's the last minute of the campaign and both candidates are using fear tactics. And honest to God, my fear is that one of them will actually get elected." --David Letterman * * * * * In a recent study, the strongest predictors for future suicidal behavior were a history of a previous suicide attempt, a higher subjective rating of their depressive symptoms, and a history of cigarette smoking. * * * * * Websites of Note Weapons of Mass Destruction http://www.coxar.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ The Candidates, in Drag http://www.stickergiant.com/cand/cand_drag.htm